CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z FRI 14/05 - 06Z SAT 15/05 2004
ISSUED: 14/05 05:18Z
FORECASTER: GATZEN

General thunderstorms are forecast across Mediterranean, southeastern Europe

SYNOPSIS

Western European ridge expands eastward into Central Europe. To the south ... upper trough remains over the Mediterranean with an axis from southern Iberian Peninsula to Turkey. At the southern flank of this trough ... strong upper jet is present over the eastern Mediterranean. At low levels ... cold airmass dominates the forecast region.

DISCUSSION

...Mediterranean, southeastern Europe ...
In the range of the upper trough ... cold airmass destabilizes during the day ... and especially over land masses sufficient CAPE may build. Weak CIN will allow for initiation. Vertical wind shear will be rather weak ... and organized thunderstorms are not expected.

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